Predicting Storms

Last Wednesday, I was surprised to wake up to heavy rain that flooded the nearby streets and trapped me at home. I wasn’t the only one who was surprised. Rain was in the forecast, but even the experts had not foreseen the kind of flooding that we experienced. With all of our scientific knowledge and technology, why is it still so difficult to accurately predict the weather? My conclusion is that a huge number of factors interact in complex patterns, leading to light rain one day (or in one part of the city) and flooding in another. It’s a lot like the complexity of the church or ministry that you lead. You may have used or heard the phrase, “unintended consequences.” When making leadership decisions, we should try to anticipate the unintended consequences so that we can avoid undesired outcomes. This important mindset helps a leader think more broadly and systemically, seeing connections that may have been overlooked initially. And yet, your “crystal ball” will at best give you a fuzzy glimpse of the future. You can predict that someone will resist a proposed change. You may even have a good idea of who that will be. But will they actively work against it, or just grumble quietly? And if they try to mobilize resistance, will they be emboldened by others, or will their initial conversations be answered by calmer voices that quiet their anger? If you ever find yourself feeling confident that you have fully assessed a decision and anticipated all the possible downsides, just remember the weather forecasters. Their job is much easier than yours. It’s easy to receive my blogs by email. Just sign-up on Feedburner by clicking here.]]>