Dangerous Data

ChristianityToday.com.) One column of the article had the bold heading, “Warning Signs” and then described the “main predictors” of church conflict. The top two are recent church fights and a shrinking congregation. But it was the “others to watch for” that got me stirred up. They include “your sermons last between 11 and 20 minutes,” “your church has almost no men,” and “your pastor is young.” I will offer a big disclaimer at this point and say that I have not read the research from which this is taken, but it appears to be a classic case of drawing erroneous or inaccurate conclusions from a mountain of data. Let me explain. Whenever someone does an extensive research project (as this appears to be), they will generate LOTS of data. It is important for researchers (or anyone else using the data) to be careful about the conclusions that they draw, especially if they are trying to understand cause and effect. For example, it’s the middle of the summer in Houston where I live, and I’m sure there is a database showing that Houston has more air conditioners per capita than Portland, Oregon. I could also find data showing that the average summer temperature in Houston is much higher than in Portland. So can I conclude that Houstonians’ purchase of air conditioners causes the temperature to rise? Of course that’s absurd, because the cause and effect are reversed. Now back to the research on pastors being forced out. Do you think that a pastor who normally preaches for 18 minutes can greatly decrease the chance of church conflict by simply adding 3 minutes to the sermon? Surely it’s more important that the sermon is Spirit-inspired, biblical, and relevant. And does having too many women cause fights? Isn’t it likely that the church with very few men is an older, declining congregation that has plenty of problems beyond gender balance? What about young pastors? I’ll agree that inexperience often results in more mistakes, but it would be interesting to look more deeply at this data. Are the statistics the same for young pastors in older, established churches as in newer churches? Are young pastors more likely to attempt bold, innovative moves (that can cause conflict) rather than playing it safe? And why is this obscure research project worthy of a blog? Because every leader in ministry will be confronted with data and will need to make decisions on how to use it. I think it’s a terrible mistake to ignore the insights that can come from thoughtful analysis, but I would hate for anyone to make major decisions based on bad analysis. So don’t work on adding 3 minutes to your sermon – work on making the full sermon (whether it’s 18 or 38 minutes) all that God wants it to be.]]>