I’m troubled by the results of a recent study by Lifeway Research. In a survey of 1,000 Protestant pastors, 65% answered that they were satisfied with the state of discipleship and spiritual formation in their congregations. I’m less troubled by the 35% that are not satisfied than I am by the 65% that seem to think that things are going well. How is this possible when so many churches are experiencing flat or declining attendance, when 1.5 times a month is considered regular attendance, and when many congregations do not experience a single adult baptism in a year?

To be fair, only 22% of the survey respondents “strongly agreed” that they were satisfied, with the other 43% saying they “somewhat agreed.” But the survey also reported that 83% of those churches have an “intentional plan for discipleship” and that 55% regularly evaluate discipleship progress. I’m sure that Lifeway is accurately reporting the results, and I believe that they know how to get a representative sample for a survey. But these results don’t match what I see in churches. 

It seems that the survey is based strictly on the subjective impressions of the pastors, which are prone to confirmation bias. This kind of optimism is more than just seeing the proverbial glass as half full. It is insisting that the glass is almost completely full and ignoring any evidence to the contrary. 

In ministry settings, it is easy to fall into confirmation bias. The gospel, at its core, is a message of hope, so we should be optimistic. Add to this the reality that much of what we do in ministry is inherently difficult to assess. This makes it easy for ministry leaders to rely on superficial analysis and anecdotal information to support their predisposition to believe the best.

Here’s the problem. When we’re satisfied, we’re likely to leave things as they are and not make needed changes. Consider a church in which the number of people participating in some type of Bible study, Sunday school, or small group is about half of its average worship attendance. The pastor knows that this is “above average.” In addition, one small group leader shares a story of life transformation for a member of the group. So the pastor concludes that the congregation’s discipleship is effective and only needs minor tweaks.

I would look at the same church and say that we don’t know whether discipleship is effective. I would want to know more about the spiritual growth in all the groups and whether newcomers to the church are getting plugged in. I would want to see evidence that people are growing in their generosity and their willingness to serve. This information isn’t the whole story, but it is more robust than the simple picture in the previous paragraph. 

So here is a challenge. In your next leadership team meeting, ask the first question from the Lifeway survey: “I am satisfied with the state of discipleship and spiritual formation in our church.” Once each person has responded, ask them to explain their rationale. If you’re not satisfied with what you hear, then dig deeper. 

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