“Evidence tends to be very persuasive when it already fits your world view, but less so when it does not agree with your preconceived notion. This is because data is assessed in light of what we already believe.” This quote is from an interview in Scientific American with Tali Sharot, author of The Optimism Bias and The Influential Mind. Before you read any more, go back and reread the quote. What is your reaction to Sharot’s assertion?

I pride myself in being objective and data-driven. I think I look at the facts in a dispassionate way and make decisions accordingly. But if I’m honest, I know that isn’t completely accurate. I think Sharot is right.

In saying this, I’m not relying just on my experience. In fact, it is quite common for churches and ministries to fit the facts according to a preconceived notion. People may say the church is a warm and friendly church, ignoring the evidence that visitors don’t return. Or when people in the community say they’ve never heard of the church, members will argue that you didn’t ask the right people.

I have had two recent experiences with church leadership teams where we looked at the number of new members over the previous two years. In each case, we discussed whether the rate of addition would make up for natural attrition. In both cases, the data indicated that the church might hold its own, but was unlikely to grow. One team accepted this as a sobering challenge, and began making plans to address it. The other group wanted to argue that they were doing fine.

I will readily acknowledge that quantitative data doesn’t tell the whole story, especially not in the ministry realm. But when we have data, we shouldn’t ignore it or explain it away. So how can we overcome this bias? A simple step is to give the data to others – preferably people who are not as invested in the organization’s success – and ask them what they see. If you can’t do that, at least acknowledge your biases and be willing to ask yourself for alternate explanations. The evidence might be more overwhelming than you realize.

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