Overcoming the "Confirmation Bias"

Decisive, Chip Heath and Dan Heath explain the confirmation bias this way: “When we want something to be true, we will spotlight the things that support it, and then, when we draw conclusions from those spotlighted scenes, we’ll congratulate ourselves on a reasoned decision.” (I’ll post a review of the book on my blog in the near future.) Heath and Heath also report on a study of literature that “found that the confirmation bias was stronger in emotion-laden domains such as religion …” Think about a couple of important decisions that you’ve seen friends make recently. Would you say that they sought out a full range of data that supported and contradicted their preferences? Or did they fall victim to the confirmation bias, giving much more attention to one set of facts. What about you? As you reflect on your last major decision, did you fall victim to the confirmation bias? Consider a non-profit that is considering a new offering for its clients. One of the key leaders makes the presentation to the board, and the “facts” make the decision seem like a no-brainer. But did the person championing the new idea really consider all the facts? And did anyone on the board advocate a contrarian position? Or consider a church that hasn’t experienced growth in several years. At a leadership team meeting, one person says, “I don’t understand. We’re such a friendly church.” Everyone else in the room agrees. When the pastor asks, “Are my sermons an issue?” everyone rushes to say that’s not the problem. But “friendliness” toward outsiders is virtually impossible for an insider to judge, and many people don’t know how to give honest, constructive feedback to their pastor. These examples highlight two tendencies that contribute to the confirmation bias in churches and many other non-profits. The first relates to the people who serve on the board and in other leadership roles. If the unspoken selection criteria favors people who are your friends or have similar viewpoints, your fight against the confirmation bias is starting from a losing position. They are the least likely to question a one-sided decision. Even if the leadership team is more diverse and willing to disagree, the second issue is that they are still “insiders” who have blind spots and a limited perspective. The fresh eyes of an outsider can bring new facts to the table that an insider will never see. Is the confirmation bias hindering your organization? If so, what will you do to overcome it? It’s easy to receive my blogs by email. Just sign-up on Feedburner by clicking here.]]>